ミャンマー亡命政権の Wishful Thinking 〜Frontier Myanmar より
フロンティアミャンマー誌は、ミャンマーの経済首都ヤンゴンに拠点を置く英語ビジネス誌。政治化し、双方のプロパガンダの言葉しか聞こえてこないミャンマーメディアの中で、一定の客観性を保って、プロフェッショナルな報道を続ける稀有な雑誌である。
クーデター政権に長期刑を課せられ服役していた同誌のアメリカ人編集者が、軍政にコネを持つ日本人フィクサーの尽力で解放された事は、日本でも報道されていた。
また、中国マフィア資本が投資するタイ国境の経済特区、シュエココカジノリゾート(中国名：水沟谷经济特区）のウサンクササを現地取材で掘り起こし、クーデターの直前には、民主政権による調査委員会が開かれるところまで追い込んだのも、このフロンティアミャンマーのビルマ人女性記者だった。
以下はフロンティアミャンマー誌インターネット版に今年４月２８日に掲載された論説記事から。同誌は、National Unity Government のクーデター後の一年を「長足の進歩を遂げた」（例えば、People’s Defense Force 国民防衛隊の兵士数は、この一年で５万人〜１０万人に増加したと言われている）と評価しながらも、亡命政権の情勢分析を楽観的すぎる Wishful Thinking だと暗に批判している。
”NUG settling in for long fight against junta”から。一章のみ抜粋する。
‘There is still a lot of wishful thinking’
Although resistance to military rule remains steadfast, some wonder whether the NUG can lead the people to victory.
Peacock Generation, a troupe famous for satirical verses traditionally performed during the Myanmar new year known as thangyat, mocked the NUG and its consultative body, the National Unity Consultative Council, in a video live-streamed on social media on the parallel government’s first anniversary on April 16.
“The revolution is winning… it’s winning… in Zoom meetings,” the troupe sang, mocking the NUG’s frequent online meetings. Other lyrics included “Did you receive guns from NUG… yes we got some airsoft guns”. The reference to “airsoft guns” is Burmese wordplay for doing a lot of talking.
The 27-minute long video was watched by more than 335,000 users, and largely garnered positive feedback. One user commented that “NUG shouldn’t take these as finding faults but constructive criticism and start fixing things.”
Diplomats in Yangon told Frontier the parallel government is not in a position to challenge the junta’s grip on power.
The NUG and the anti-coup movement have moral leadership but that’s limited in practice, one senior diplomat in Yangon who spoke on the condition of anonymity said on April 20. “There is still a lot of wishful thinking [about toppling the military],” the diplomat said. “Both sides appear to believe their own rhetoric, when the reality is that… any form of ‘victory’ appears impossible.”
Another key concern, the diplomat stated, is that China and India have decisively sided with the junta.
The diplomat cited a statement by China’s foreign minister Mr Wang Yi, during an April 1 visit to Beijing by his junta-appointed counterpart, U Wunna Maung Lwin. Wang stated that China “has always placed Myanmar in an important position in its neighbourly diplomacy” and would always back Myanmar, “no matter how the situation changes”.
Meanwhile, Min Aung Hlaing accepted the credentials of India’s new ambassador, Mr Vinay Kumar, in a ceremony at Nay Pyi Taw on April 6.
Unlike Aung San Suu Kyi, who in 2015 became the first foreign opposition leader to meet China’s head of state President Xi Jinping, the NUG has not been able to convince Beijing that it is the government-in-waiting. The parallel government has also struggled to garner support from Delhi.
“For China, the military will always be an important force in Myanmar politics. The civil war might be rampant, but it doesn’t mean NUG and PDF plus EAOs can drive the military out,” said Ms Yun Sun, director of the China programme at the US-based Stimson Center, on April 20.
In the minds of the Chinese government, “the military is going to rule the country, no matter how limited its territory and how much domestic resistance. Its legitimacy might be disputed, but it is what can still be regarded as the central government,” Yun said.
The NUG has been critical of China for its stance, and has also criticised the international community for not doing more to support the parallel government. Sasa pointed out that while the international community was quick to sanction Vladirmir Putin and Russian oligarchs after the invasion of Ukraine, it took some time for Myanmar’s generals and their allies to be subject to the same mechanisms.
It is also important for the NUG to talk to Asian governments, the Yangon-based diplomat added. “They spend a lot of time preaching to the converted, that’s us, and not enough speaking to those who need to be converted,” the diplomat said.
To garner more international support, there was also a need “produce policy statements that reflect the progressive views of modern democracies, such as on the death penalty, human rights, inclusiveness, tolerance towards diversity, fair and conducive economic policies,” the diplomat added.
A Myanmar business leader agreed. She told Frontier on April 26 that the NUG should create stronger connections internationally and “ensure its platform is not just for resistance but also for nation-building.”
“Internally, the NUG needs to connect with the younger generation and outline what they will bring for the country,” she said,“externally, they need to do a better job of articulating why the world should care about Myanmar. Not just repeating the injustice done to us but for the world to see Myanmar as a place of hope and a promising integration into the global community, and more emphasis on how we are going to help ourselves, not just asking for outside help.”
Dr Khin Zaw Win of the Tampadipa Institute, a Yangon-based think tank, said Myanmar’s neighbours have had cozy relations with the military for decades. It has become innate in neighbouring countries to consider the military in their institutional and strategic plans and the NUG should therefore be focusing on establishing closer relationships with them, he told Frontier on April 19.
“[These countries] are not going to abandon [engagement with the military] in a hurry, and it’s not enough for the NUG to say ‘you should have relations with us because we are the elected government’. Elections and democracy matter very little for those countries,” Khin Zaw Win said, “what’s the use if you don’t influence your neighbours?”
全文はFrontier Myanmar の以下のサイトで、
FM誌のホームページは以下、
Wikipedia より、Frontier Myanmar について。
印刷版の最後の発行はクーデター直前の２０２１年１月２７日号。この時の見出し記事は上に触れた Shwe Kokko 経済特区についてのものである。右は、最終号の表紙で、巨大カジノ特区を中国資本と共同開発する少数民族グループ司令官の写真を掲載している。この組織は（BGF＝DKBA)、クーデター政権のトップが招聘して先日ネピドーで開かれた「和平交渉」にもいち早く馳せ参じていた。
フロンティアミャンマーのネットでの報道は今でも継続されていて、週刊ニュースレターは無料、雑誌のインターネットバージョンは年間８０ドルで購読が可能なようである。
同誌が今でもプレス活動を続けていることが驚きだったので取り上げてみた。ウィキペディアによると、この雑誌の創刊（当初の名前は単に「フロンティア」）には、失脚したキン・ニュン元首相配下の軍情報部幹部が関わっていたらしい。その後関係が切れ、ティアン・セイン政権下の自由化政策で装いを新たにしたようだが、この雑誌が、クーデター後も一定の独立性を保ち得ている背景には、もしかしたら、そういう事情も関わっているのかもしれない。
追記
英国のエコノミスト誌の記事が、ミャンマー民主派支持メディアの報道をプロパガンダと規定し、反クーデター勢力が、自らのプロパガンダを信じ込んで自家中毒に陥る傾向を指摘している。
これに対して、The Irrawaddy の投稿者（Igor Blaževič というクロアチアの人権活動家）が反論している。「ウクライナ一辺倒のウクライナ報道より、ミャンマーの市民リポーター（彼らの言い方では独立系リポーター）の方がマシである」というレトリックが出てきた時点で、説得力をなくしていとると思うが・・・
＜了＞